Bulgarian exchange power prices are up 22%: what it means for businesses and solar PV

Updated: November 2026 · By the Inter Power team, Gabrovo

The average exchange price of electricity in Bulgaria from 1 January to 26 October 2026 is €127.20/MWh, 22% above the same period of 2025. The increase directly affects companies that buy at the exchange price, not households. For such a company, its own power from the roof saves both the exchange price and the charges on top of it, but the expensive evening hours can only be covered with a battery.

What the 22% actually means

The figure comes from a calculation by Capital based on data from the Independent Bulgarian Energy Exchange (IBEX). It compares the average price in the day-ahead segment, not the final price on the invoice. In other words, this is the price of the energy itself, before the supplier's margin, charges, excise duty and VAT.

Source: Capital, 26 October 2026, based on IBEX data. Day-ahead segment, base load.

The table shows what matters: the year is not evenly 22% more expensive. In April and June the price was below €100/MWh, and the jump came in October. Capital links it to more expensive gas, the scheduled repair of a unit at the Kozloduy nuclear power plant, the nuclear capacity taken offline in Romania and Hungary, and limited transmission in the region. In the mornings and evenings, when there is no other alternative, prices have reached about €400/MWh.

That is why an investment decision should not be based on October prices. They show the risk, not the normal level.

Who is affected and who is not

Households: EWRC decision effective 1 July 2026. Contract terms differ for each company.

The statistics show the same divergence. According to the National Statistical Institute (NSI), in the first half of 2026 prices for non-household customers rose compared with the second half of 2025, most of all, by 9.4%, in the group consuming under 20 MWh a year. For household customers there was a slight decrease, of up to 1.4%.

The state also has a compensation programme for non-household customers for the period from 1 September 2026 to 30 June 2027. The base value is €122.71/MWh, and the compensation is up to 80% of the difference above it. However, it is paid as a one-off after the end of the period and the exact percentage is set only then, so it does not reduce the monthly bill and should not be included in an investment calculation.

What 22% costs a company

The difference between €104.36 and €127.20/MWh is €22.84/MWh. For every 100,000 kWh a year, that is about €2,280 more if you buy at the average exchange price. The actual amount depends on the hours in which the site operates.

The exchange price, however, is only part of the invoice. On a June 2026 invoice for a low-voltage business site, the average price is about €151/MWh excluding VAT:

Invoice for a low-voltage business site, calculation for one of our clients. Excluding VAT.

So every MWh you do not buy from the grid saves about €41.7 on top of the exchange price. That is why a solar power plant for self-consumption is calculated against the whole invoice, not just the exchange price.

Why panels alone do not catch the expensive hours

The average price hides what matters most: the difference between hours. In the calculation for the same business site, the exchange price is €57–76/MWh between 11:00 and 15:00 and reaches up to €174/MWh between 18:00 and 21:00. Panels produce the most exactly when electricity is cheapest.

A battery shifts the midday surplus to the evening, and the control system decides exactly when to charge and discharge based on the prices for every 15 minutes. Here is how this looks for a manufacturing workshop that operates from 8:00 to 16:00 and uses 215,400 kWh a year:

Calculation for one of our clients, excluding VAT. The subscription for the control system is not deducted from these amounts.

Power drawn from the grid falls by 70%, from 215,400 to 63,800 kWh a year. The site does not export to the grid, so part of the midday production goes unused. This is the calculation that decides which system makes sense, not the capacity on the roof.

How the payback changes

More expensive electricity shortens the payback, but not as much as it seems. We calculated two sites at different exchange prices:

Calculations for our clients, based on each site's real profile. Forecasts, not completed projects.

The conclusion cuts both ways. With an exchange price 20% higher you gain about 0.7 years, but with one 20% lower the workshop loses a whole year. For the second site, electricity prices rising by 3% a year give 5.4 years, and by 5% a year 5.1 years. That is why the investment has to hold up at lower prices too, with high prices as an extra benefit. The conditions for grant funding are checked at the time of application.

How to check whether it pays off for your company

1. Check your contract. Whether it is an exchange or a fixed price, and how long it is valid.
2. Get your consumption profile for 12 months. You need data for every 15 minutes or every hour, not just the monthly total.
3. Look at when you operate. The larger the share of consumption between 9:00 and 16:00, the more of the panels' output you will use directly.
4. Find out whether you can export power to the grid. Without export, the surplus is lost if there is no battery. In the workshop above, 66% of the generated power is used, and about 80,900 kWh a year go unused.
5. Calculate at three prices. Today's, 20% higher and 20% lower. Do not use October prices as the baseline.

Frequently asked questions

Who is behind these calculations

Inter Power designs, builds and maintains solar PV systems, batteries and electrical installations. We base our calculations on each site's real profile and exchange prices. You will find us in Gabrovo at 58 Bryanska St. and in Sofia at 36V Lyublyana St. See also our projects.

Sources (in Bulgarian, except BTA): Capital, 26 October 2026; BTA, 17 September 2026; 3e-news on the EWRC decision; NSI data via FOCUS.

Updated: November 2026 · Exchange data as of 26 October 2026.